Palace’s valuation of a player who can leave for nothing next summer will be pivotal.
If Liverpool don’t view Guehi’s price as reasonable, don’t be surprised to see them park their interest for 12 months and look to strike a free-transfer agreement.
But what represents a reasonable price? For a clue, we should look back to last year when Palace rejected multiple offers from Newcastle – the last of which was worth £65m.
Common sense dictates the fee this summer will be lower give the looming contract expiry. But how much lower?
There is no official word on what Palace would be prepared to accept for their skipper.
They’ve got to balance it all against the prospect of having Guehi in the heart of their defence next season, and helping them remain competitive in the Premier League.
There have been indications, though, that the south London club may be willing accept a deal worth between £40m and £45m.
The issue, however, would be whether Liverpool see it that way.
Liverpool’s preferred profile for a centre-back in recent years has been younger than the Palace centre-back.
In 2023 they were interested in Levi Colwill, who was 20 at the time. Last summer Liverpool were in for 18-year-old Leny Yoro, who eventually joined Manchester United. Prior to their interest in Guehi this summer they explored a move for Dean Huijsen, 19.
With that in mind, Liverpool will be looking for what they judge as value to change their approach.
With Liverpool set to sell centre-back Jarell Quansah to Bayer Leverkusen in a deal worth up to £35m, there is logic to the thought the Merseysiders could aim to break even in any formal bid for Guehi.
Perhaps they’d be willing to pay a little extra over the money they recoup for Quansah – but not by much.
It’s a delicate balance.
If Palace value Guehi at a price the Premier League champions deem fair, and Liverpool enter the discussions at a figure the Londoners don’t perceive as ‘low-balling’, then that could open the door towards a successful and amicable negotiation.
With that in mind, the first point of formal contact between clubs will likely be crucial towards whether Guehi ends up at Anfield.
