That India batted on into the evening session at Edgbaston suggested they were wary of England’s ability to chase big scores.
England completed a pursuit of 371 with five wickets to spare in Leeds last week and knocked off 378 to beat India by seven wickets on this very ground in 2022 – their record pursuit.
Four of England’s best 10 chases in the fourth innings – and their highest two – have come in the three years under Stokes and McCullum.
None have come close to this task, however. The highest successful chase in Test history is West Indies’ 418-7 against Australia in 2003.
Salvaging a draw on the fifth day is not simple either. England have only done so once in the past 12 years.
On that occasion, the fourth Test of the 2021-22 Ashes in Sydney, they started the final day with all 10 wickets in hand rather than the seven they have remaining here.
This Edgbaston pitch is also offering more spin and seam movement than at Headingley last week, plus some uneven bounce.
CricViz’s PitchViz, which ranks the difficulty of surfaces from one to 10 with the higher number being more difficult, gave this track a rating of 4.6 at the end of day four, a deterioration from day one. At Headingley the day-four pitch was rated 3.7, having got easier for batting since the opening day.
So it is clear the odds are stacked heavily against England.
As for positives, there is some rain forecast in the morning which could reduce the number of overs they have to bat.
Batting has also been far easier against the older, softer ball throughout this match and this current lump of leather is now 16 overs old.
In England’s first innings, India took five wickets for 85 runs with the first new ball and 5-31 with the second. In between, Brook and Jamie Smith combined for an epic partnership that yielded 303 runs.
“We have another 10-15 overs of the hardest point, before the ball gets a little bit soft, and we will see how we are going from that point,” Trescothick said.
There will still be 24 overs left in the day when India get their second new ball shortly after tea – if England can get there.
In some ways, England’s approach on Sunday will be more interesting than the result.
