Labour has been winning in elections in Wales for more than a century – and if the polls are anything to go by, this will change in the Senedd elections in May.
A new voting system and an electorate hungry for change means for the first time in Wales, polls suggest voters no longer want Labour in power.
But a new and clear pattern is emerging in the polls. Once dominant, Labour is now fighting for third with the Greens, while Plaid Cymru and Reform UK compete for first place.
The most recent ITV YouGov poll speaks to this trend: Plaid Cymru is in first place with 33% – securing an estimated 43 seats, six short of a majority. Reform UK follows on 27%, with Welsh Labour down to 13%.
If polling is accurate, Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth could be Wales’s first non-Labour First Minister. The Welsh Labour red rose superseded by the Plaid Cymru daffodil.
But the polls do not indicate an overall majority for Plaid Cymru. No party has ever secured one in Cardiff Bay since devolution, and the new voting system makes that outcome even less likely this time.
Mr ap Iorwerth previously told Sky News he would run a minority government. Plaid Cymru sources told Sky News the party has sought advice from the SNP after they took over government from Scottish Labour in 2007.
Unless Plaid secures a majority, which is unlikely, the party will need to rely on support from opposition parties to get its ambitions into law.
Could the Green Party be Plaid Cymru’s secret weapon? The polls indicate that.
The recent Green bounce, fuelled by Zack Polanski, means the party, led by Anthony Slaughter in Wales, could be on track for 10 seats in the Senedd.
Mr Slaughter told Sky News “the polls suggest we will hold the balance of power in the Senedd after the election”.
If that happens, it would be a big moment, since the Greens have never had a seat in the Welsh Parliament before. The surge of the Greens could provide a lifeline to Plaid Cymru, which wants to distance itself from Labour and previous co-operation agreements under Labour-led minority governments in Cardiff.
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There’s common ground between the Greens and Plaid. They are both left leaning, pro EU, pro Welsh independence, and both have by-election wins. Plaid in Caerphilly, the Greens in Gorton and Denton – both chipping away at Labour and claiming victory from Labour over Reform.
But sticking points could be around Plaid’s decision to abandon its 2035 net zero pledges, which could be a red line for the Greens, who are also seeking advice from Scottish counterparts.
As one Green Wales Party source put it: “When the SNP started watering things down, the Scottish Greens walked away from government. It’s not about getting a seat at the table for us, it’s about delivering real change.”
Green Party leader Zack Polanski spoke at the launch of the Wales Green Party election campaign in Cardiff
Eluned Morgan, the sixth consecutive Labour First Minister of Wales, told Sky News she does not accept they are going to lose in May.
However, recent YouGov polling suggests the Baroness may not even secure a seat at next month’s election.
Despite the first minister’s defiance, some within Labour’s ranks are far less optimistic than their leader.
One party that is optimistic is Reform UK, led in Wales by Dan Thomas. Reform is confident they can win the popular vote in May, pledging to scrap the controversial default 20mph limit in urban areas and focusing on immigration.
Reform is clearly cutting through in Wales. Recent polls put Reform on 27% with about 30 seats, 19 short of a majority.
With the Conservatives projected to win just one seat and other parties ruling out a coalition, Mr Thomas’s path to first minister based on polling looks tricky.
The party, however, appears poised to replace the Conservatives as the official opposition, a development likely to please them as Nigel Farage has signalled his ambition for Reform UK to “put an end” to the Tories.
Dr Jac Larner of the Wales Governance Centre told Sky News the new voting system makes things harder for mid-sized parties.
He said: “Each of the 16 constituencies returns six members, allocated in successive rounds – meaning the final seats in each constituency are typically decided by very small margins. That makes seat projections genuinely uncertain, especially for mid-sized parties whose fortunes depend on winning those last, tightest places.
“A swing of just a couple of percentage points can trigger a cascade of gains or losses across the country.”
Recent polling puts Reform UK – led by Dan Thomas in Wales – on 27%
He added: “For Labour and the Conservatives, that uncertainty cuts particularly sharply: the difference between a bad night and a truly catastrophic one may come down to no more than two or three points in vote share.”
With a new voting system being used in Wales for the first time, everything is still up for grabs on 7 May.
But if recent polling is anything to go by, one thing seems inevitable: the era of two-party dominance in Wales looks to be ending, and its aftershocks could soon ripple down the M4.
