An extra 150,000 people will still be pushed into poverty despite the government making significant concessions on its plans to cut welfare, according to its own analysis.
The government document, published today, reflects its decision to water down some of the more severe changes to Personal Independence Payments (PIP) and the health top-up for universal credit.
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It states that an estimated 150,000 people will now be pushed into poverty after housing costs if the new welfare cuts come into effect – down from 250,000 under the government’s original plans.
Under the original reforms, the eligibility criteria for PIP would have been tightened for both new and existing claimants.
Ministers also intended to freeze the health top-up of Universal Credit at £97 a week during this parliament.
However, in the face of a large rebellion by Labour MPs, the government changed the proposals for PIP to apply to new claimants only from November 2026.
All current recipients of the health element of Universal Credit will also now have their incomes protected in real terms, as will any new applicants who meet the “severe conditions criteria”.
The government will hope that the reduction of 100,000 people will be enough to persuade Labour MPs to vote for the new package of reforms when they are put to a vote on Tuesday.
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The new assessment also states the impact on the number of pensioners and children in poverty is “expected to be negligible” after the original analysis said 50,000 children would be in relative poverty by the end of the decade.
The new modelling does not take account of extra money the government is putting in to support people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into work.
Before the government announced its changes, 127 Labour MPs signalled publicly that they would be willing to vote down the welfare bill in its entirety by signing an amendment that would have stopped its progress through parliament.
It has been reported that the number of Labour rebels now stands at around 50 following the concessions.
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Nadia Whittome, the Labour MP for Nottingham East, indicated she would still vote against the bill despite the concessions.
In a post on X, she said: “Even with the concessions, the government’s own analysis forecasts that 150,000 people could still be pushed into poverty by disability benefit cuts by the end of the decade.
“As Labour MPs, we didn’t enter politics to make struggling constituents poorer. We must stop this bill.”
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Downing Street said the updated modelling on the impact of the government’s welfare cuts “doesn’t reflect the full picture”.
A spokesperson said there was still “uncertainty” around the projections because they don’t take into account other government action, including NHS investment and employment support.
“All our support directly helps people moving to work and becoming financially independent,” they added.
