File photo of an IAF MiG-21 passing in front of Sukhoi-30 jets before a drill at Kalaikunda airbase in Bengal
October onwards, India will have just 29 fighter jet squadrons- Pakistan has 25. That’s near-parity, and a scary one, especially because Pakistan’s ‘iron brother’ China has 66 squadrons. A squadron typically has 18-20 fighter jets. In two months’ time, India will have 522 fighter jets. Pakistan has 450, and China, 1,200.Air chief A P Singh said India needs to induct at least 40 fighter jets every year. That, currently, looks worse than impossible.Some pundits say that unless India ups its game, more squadrons with old fighter jets, Mirage, Jaguar and other MiG variants, will be phased out, it will have the same number of fighter squadrons as Pakistan in less than 10 years. The proximate cause for this worry is IAF phasing out its last two MiG-21 squadrons. But the bigger reasons have been at play for years.Also read:MiG-21s set for final flight in Sept after 62 years in serviceThe MMRCA Shock: The 2015 cancellation of the 126-jet Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft deal made a huge difference. The 36 Rafale jets India acquired through a govt-to-govt deal with France were nowhere near enough given IAF’s ageing fighter fleet. India has ordered 26 more Rafales, but for the Navy.Plans, Plans, Plans…: There are plans to buy 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft. But nothing’s moved on this.Made In India? The grand plan was that indigenous Tejas Light Combat Aircraft will maintain India’s air superiority over Pakistan. IAF currently has just about two squadrons, 38 fighters, of Tejas Mark-1. Delivery of the improved Tejas Mark-1A jets, 83 of which are supposed to be delivered by HAL, has blown through multiple production deadlines. Not even one is in service. This is in part thanks to massive delays in the delivery of GE’s F-404 engines, and partly because of so-far-unsolved issues with integrating Astra air-to-air missiles and fixing certain critical avionics.IAF hopes another 97 Tejas Mark-1A will come through, along with another 108 Tejas Mark-2 variant with the more powerful GE F-414 engine. The engine is to be co-produced in India with 80% transfer of technology. But it’s all on paper now.Then, there’s the proposed 5th generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft. The most that can be said about this is that it’s an idea.Engine Failure: The key hurdle in Made in India programme is the inability to produce an indigenous jet engine. The old Kaveri engine development project failed to meet standards. Modern fighter jet engines are complex machines with thousands of parts that must withstand high pressure and temperatures. It requires billions of dollars to develop a fighter jet engine.Essentially, an engine has four parts- compressor, combustion chamber, turbine and nozzle.The hot part of the engine, combustion chamber and turbine blades, is tricky to get right, requiring advanced ceramics. But India’s talent depth in material science is shallow. Only a few thousand materials engineers graduate each year. India even struggles to manufacture basic stuff like ceramic-coated electrodes, required in the production of green hydrogen. These are imported. So, forget about fighter jet engines made here, at least in the near future.
Are Drones The Solution?Many pundits reckon large military platforms like fighter jets and warships are becoming redundant, given the changing nature of warfare. Ukraine has done amazing things with drones in its war against Russian aggression, taking out Russian warships and fighter jets with UAVs that cost a fraction of the price of a jet.Ukraine will produce 4 million drones this year. India’s armed forces have talked about using many more drones. But there are two issues. Any domestic production will have to account for ever-evolving drone tech. And India needs a specialist corps to operate drones or specialist drone subunits.Those who challenge the drones-are-it strategy point out that India’s strategic security theatre is very different from Ukraine’s, and fighter jets provide a penetrative, offensive capability that drones can’t, at least not now.So, the reality that India and Pakistan are almost at parity when it comes to fighter jets is still scary.
