Canada’s incoming Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is expected to continue the ongoing shift toward sustainable immigration levels to reduce pressure on housing and infrastructure. In short, it is likely that as per the Liberals’ immigration agenda, his administration will adhere to the 2025–2027 immigration levels plan released last October, which caps international students and temporary workers at under 5% of the population by 2027. Currently, this cohort constitutes 7.3% of Canada’s total population of 41.5 million.
The focus will be on transitioning existing temporary residents to permanent status and in attracting top global talent (including tapping those in the US) through a revitalised Global Skills Strategy Program.
The immigration agenda of the Liberal Party was released earlier this year. A big plus in the agenda is the proposed move towards recognition of foreign credentials, a long-standing barrier for many skilled migrants from India; and in speeding up processing and reducing immigration related backlog. It also stresses on boosting Francophone immigration – with a national target to increase such immigration to 12% by 2029.
“Our immigration plan will also allow for the reunification of families, while maintaining Canada’s global leadership in prioritizing the world’s most vulnerable, including human rights defenders and refugees,” the immigration agenda had stated.
In the past, Carney has been quoted as saying, “We had much higher levels of foreign workers, students, and new Canadians coming in that we could absorb…And so we are letting down people that we let in, quite frankly.” The labour shortage during the pandemic had led Canada to respond to business demands and the government ended up losing track, he had stated.
In this backdrop, the focus will also be on transiting existing temporary workers to permanent residents, rather than throwing the flood gates open to newcomers from outside Canada. The Liberal Party’s immigration agenda had stated that permanent resident admissions will be stabilised at less than 1% of Canada’s population annually beyond 2027 and the focus will be on attracting top global talent.
The Liberals’ immigration agenda aligns with the targets set in the immigration levels plan, which were set at 3.95 lakh permanent residents in 2025, 3.80 lakh for 2026 and 3.65 lakh in 2027. India is the largest source country, with 1.27 lakh Indians being admitted as permanent residents in 2024, even as this was a decline of nearly 9% over the previous year.
The number of temporary residents in Canada has grown exponentially over the last few years from about 437,000 individuals in 2019 alone to about 1.2 million (12 lakhs) in 2023. The cap on the total number of temporary workers and students will also continue.
Manish Kapoor, Ontario based, Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant (RCIC) said, “Mark Carney’s advocacy for sustainable immigration suggests a potential inclination to maintain the existing immigration levels plan, including for temporary immigration. This news may be viewed positively by prospective students and immigrants from India, as the Conservative government might have implemented more restrictive immigration measures.”
Carney has in the past blamed provinces for underfunding higher education, which pushed institutions to turn to foreign students to make money. This, according to immigration experts points at continuity in student intake caps.
In 2024, India was the leading source of international students in Canada, with 427,000 students enrolled in Canadian institutions. 1.9 lakh study permits were issued to Indian students in 2024, a decline of 32%. Kubeir Kamal, a Toronto based, RCIC, told TOI, “The continued 35% cut in study permits (down to about 3.15 lakh) is a tough pill for the large Indian student contingent. However, the Liberals’ big bet on Francophone immigration is sparking a pivot toward learning French, and fast. Bilingualism could give Indian students an edge in permanent residency streams like Express Entry, where Francophone candidates often score extra points.”
The good news for Indian aspirants is that the immigration agenda aims at attracting the top global talent by revitalising the ‘Global Skills Strategy Program’ to help high-growth Canadian businesses. This program enables eligible Canadian companies to hire immigrant skilled workers, with priority work permit processing in two weeks and it is likely that it could be further enhanced and made more attractive.
A silver lining for Indian H-1B visa holders who are backlogged for decades for an employment-linked green card is that the policy document emphasizes attracting highly skilled talent from the US which can help grow the Canadian economy. In June 2023, Canada had announced a pilot program allowing 10,000 H-1B visa holders to come and work in Canada under an open work permit of up to three years – this had been a roaring success, with the quota met almost immediately.
Though the liberal party is reducing temporary residence numbers, to propel growth, it will have to continue to support highly skilled foreign workers, states Gurbhajneek Singh Samra, a Calgary based immigration attorney. He added, “It will be very important for this government to develop business immigration plans for the country as at present there are likely very few options for top talent workers to transition to permanent residency which is a big problem to hire and retain top talent in Canada.”
The policy document had also emphasised that the Liberal Party, on being elected, would work with provinces and territories to streamline and speed up recognition of foreign credentials and international professional experience. Lack of recognition of an Indian degree has often been the bane for professionals migrating to Canada – forcing them to work in sales and service roles rather than core occupations.
Pavan Dhillon, Canadian immigration attorney, said,
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Mark Carney’s victory means new leadership — but familiar themes. The Liberal platform ran on the following: caps on temporary residents (under 5% of population), sustained permanent resident growth (to under 1% per year) , rising Francophone immigration targets outside Quebec (with a new increased target of 12%).”
“From my experience advising businesses and individuals daily, I see the impact: Provinces still lack the flexibility they need to manage their own economic immigration, global talent needs more viable pathways. Canada has experienced its fair share of politically motivated policymaking in the past few months. What it desperately needs is a return to data-driven, stable and fair immigration policies,” she added.
Ken Nickel-Lane, founder of an immigration services firm summed up, “With ambitious growth plans for the country, notably around housing and infrastructure projects, Carney’s government will need to lean into into immigration programs not away from them. Canada simply does not have the workers needed to advance his agenda to extent he has laid it out without notable volumes of temporary foreign workers. Unlike the Conservatives who were widely expected to slash immigration levels in all categories, Carney’s government is likely to stay the course for the most part, simply because it has to support its growth agenda.”
Going forward, immigration experts do foresee announcement of focussed programs to meet specific needs.
Liberals’ agenda on immigration at a glance:
- Return immigration to sustainable levels by capping the total number of temporary workers and international students to less than 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2027
- Stabilize permanent resident admissions at less than 1% of Canada’s population annually beyond 2027
- Attract the best talent in the world to build our economy by revitalizing the Global Skills Strategy to help high-growth Canadian businesses and entrepreneurs
- Work with provinces and territories to streamline and speed up recognition of foreign credentials and international professional experience
- Leverage digital service tools to reduce processing times and eliminate backlogs
- Establish a 12% target for Francophone immigration outside of Quebec by 2029to strengthen Francophone communities throughout Canada
- Others: Support legal aid for asylum seekers and refugees and move forward with a credible and fair immigration system; strengthen the integrity of the border; enhance federal, provincial, and territorial collaboration.
