The Conservatives and Labour have lost their historical grip on local elections in England under the challenge from Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats and Greens.
Fragmentation of voters’ choices is even more extreme than in 2013 when UKIP performed strongly, with Reform making larger gains in terms of vote share and seats.
Nigel Farage’s party has gained over 500 seats so far, taking control of seven councils, as well as winning both of this year’s inaugural metro mayor contests, in Greater Lincolnshire and in Hull and East Yorkshire.
Politics latest: Sky News analysis shows Reform surge in estimated national vote
Meanwhile, the Conservatives have lost control of all their previously held councils.
Labour and the Conservatives have historically tended to be well out in front in local elections in England, even as they have faced down challenges from parties like the Lib Dems and UKIP.
The 2025 local elections appear to mark a significant break from this electoral dominance, largely down to Reform’s dramatic successes.
Heading into election day, Reform leader Nigel Farage declared his party was ready to “go out and smash the two-party system”.
Farage’s party has delivered a huge blow to the electoral foundations of the Conservatives and Labour.
Labour and the Conservatives together now account for less than 40% of the total council vote share.
It’s a noticeable shift from previous years, when the two parties consistently dominated the local electoral map, together taking the majority of the vote share.
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This fragmentation of voting behaviour can be seen in the share of votes required to win, which has fallen to the lowest level since records began – to just above 45%. This exceeds the previous low of 2013 when the challenge of Nigel Farage’s UKIP allowed all parties to win with a smaller share of the vote.
The map below shows the state of the parties.
Many councils have been declared, and at the moment, a lot are controlled by Reform, a couple by the Lib Dems and the rest are under no overall control.
Reform reshapes the electoral map
While Reform’s performance in these elections delivered a seismic shock to the political status quo, there is something rather familiar about the party’s electoral strongholds. Just like Nigel Farage’s UKIP in 2013 and 2017, Reform did better in areas with fewer university graduates and with more people employed in industry.
As such, the geography of Reform’s vote has much in common with support for Farage’s old party UKIP – and we see a close relationship between how UKIP did in wards and divisions in the 2017 local elections and how Reform did in the same places this year.
Farage’s new party has, however, far exceeded the vote share won by UKIP, bringing them electoral success where previously they fell short.
Of the 459 wards/divisions for which we have comparable data so far, Reform UK has won more than 40% of the vote in 380 of them, compared to only two at that level for UKIP in 2017.
This includes 36 wards/divisions where Reform has won more than 50% of the vote share.
Reform’s gains in vote share have also far exceeded those of the Conservatives and Labour.
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‘Reform-quake’: Key moments from local elections
Take County Durham, for instance. Traditionally, the area has been a Labour stronghold. Including the period before councils were reorganised in 1974, the North East England county had been controlled by the Labour Party for around 100 years until 2021, when its council fell to no overall control.
In today’s election, Reform won control, winning two-thirds of the council’s seats.
Labour went from 43 to 4 seats. And, the party has also seen a 24.7 point drop in today’s vote share compared to their 2024 general election result.
However, the Conservatives had the most to lose heading into the election. Prior to Friday, the Tories were defending control over 18 out of 23 councils being contested.
They have now lost every single one of those 18 councils. About half had gone to Reform, and another half ended up with no overall control.
Late afternoon Friday, the Lib Dems also picked up several counties, including Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire, which had both previously been under no overall control.
Responding to the wins, Lib Dem leader Ed Davey said: “From Wiltshire to Oxfordshire, from Shropshire to Devon, the Liberal Democrats have replaced the Conservatives as the party of Middle England.”
“[Conservative Party leader] Kemi Badenoch sneered at the Liberal Democrats for being the party that will fix your church roof. Today, voters across the country have chosen our community politics over the Conservative Party’s neglect and disdain.”
Meanwhile, in a post on X, Ms Badenoch said: “These were always going to be a very difficult set of elections coming off the high of 2021.
“The renewal of our party has only just begun, and I’m determined to win back the trust of the public and the seats we’ve lost,” added Ms Badenoch
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
