So much for an end to chaos and sticking plaster politics.
Yesterday, Sir Keir Starmer abandoned his flagship welfare reforms at the eleventh hour – hectic scenes in the House of Commons that left onlookers aghast.
Facing possible defeat on his welfare bill, the PM folded in a last-minute climbdown to save his skin.
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Welfare bill passes second reading
The decision was so rushed that some government insiders didn’t even know it was coming – as the deputy PM, deployed as a negotiator, scrambled to save the bill or how much it would cost.
“Too early to answer, it’s moved at a really fast pace,” said one.
The changes were enough to whittle back the rebellion to 49 MPs as the prime minister prevailed, but this was a pyrrhic victory.
Sir Keir lost the argument with his own backbenchers over his flagship welfare reforms, as they roundly rejected his proposed cuts to disability benefits for existing claimants or future ones, without a proper review of the entire personal independence payment (PIP) system first.
PM wins key welfare vote – follow latest
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Welfare bill blows ‘black hole’ in chancellor’s accounts
That in turn has blown a hole in the public finances, as billions of planned welfare savings are shelved.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves now faces the prospect of having to find £5bn.
As for the politics, the prime minister has – to use a war analogy – spilled an awful lot of blood for little reward.
He has faced down his MPs and he has lost.
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‘Lessons to learn’, says Kendall
They will be emboldened from this and – as some of those close to him admit – will find it even harder to govern.
After the vote, in central lobby, MPs were already saying that the government should regard this as a reset moment for relations between No 10 and the party.
The prime minister always said during the election that he would put country first and party second – and yet, less than a year into office, he finds himself pinned back by his party and blocked from making what he sees are necessary reforms.
I suspect it will only get worse. When I asked two of the rebel MPs how they expected the government to cover off the losses in welfare savings, Rachael Maskell, a leading rebel, suggested the government introduce welfare taxes.
Meanwhile, Work and Pensions Select Committee chair Debbie Abrahams told me “fiscal rules are not natural laws” – suggesting the chancellor could perhaps borrow more to fund public spending.
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How did your MP vote?
Welfare cuts branded ‘Dickensian’
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Should the govt slash the welfare budget?
These of course are both things that Ms Reeves has ruled out.
But the lesson MPs will take from this climbdown is that – if they push hard in enough and in big enough numbers – the government will give ground.
The fallout for now is that any serious cuts to welfare – something the PM says is absolutely necessary – are stalled for the time being, with the Stephen Timms review into PIP not reporting back until November 2026.
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Tearful MP urges govt to reconsider
Had the government done this differently and reviewed the system before trying to impose the cuts – a process only done ahead of the Spring Statement in order to help the chancellor fix her fiscal black hole – they may have had more success.
Those close to the PM say he wants to deliver on the mandate the country gave him in last year’s election, and point out that Sir Keir Starmer is often underestimated – first as party leader and now as prime minister.
But on this occasion, he underestimated his own MPs.
His job was already difficult enough – and after this it will be even harder still.
If he can’t govern his party, he can’t deliver change he promised.
